The Next Election: No One to Vote For?

A Political Perspective

With the Gomery Commission's preliminary report released (you can see a summary and even buy a copy for $49.95 at: http://www.gomery.ca/en/phase1report) which condemns the Liberal Party of Canada for its corruption and mismanagement of taxpayer's money, there is a question that springs to mind in many Canadian voters: Who the heck can we vote for come election day?

Paul Martin has stated that he will call a general election once the final report of the Gomery Commission is released in the spring. So every Canadian voter must begin to contemplate their choices on their future government as soon as possible. With this in mind, we at Full Spectrum have decided to give all our visitors a run down on what the parties will be doing in the next few months to gain your confidence. We will also give you our predictions on how we think voters will cast their ballots and as a result what our 39th Parliament will look like.

The Liberals

Martin has some leverage at this time. Gomery exonerated Martin from any wrong doing and Martin will use this to his advantage. He will state, in one form or another, the Liberal Party today is not the Liberal Party of the Chretien years. He will tell us that when Adscam was revealed to the public, he took direct and concise action to get to the bottom of it and punish those responsible. He will point out the banning of four members of the party for life, the court action against advertising companies to recover money for the public treasury, and the one million dollars the Liberal Party reimbursed the treasury for the kickbacks it received. If he can convince us of this he will do well come election time, especially in Ontario, Newfoundland and the Atlantic Provinces. The biggest stumbling block though is that many voters are not convinced he was as clean as Gomery stated. Many believe Martin knew what was happening, or if he didn't know, he was incompetent as the! Finance Minister.

The Conservatives

The Conservatives will try to take advantage of the scandal by stating it is time for a change. Harper will bring up the point that when one party holds on to power for a long period of time, corruption is the result. He will parade all the scandals of the Liberal Party since they took power in 1993 and will try to convince voters the Conservative Party is the ethical choice for governance. They will have little difficulty convincing most Westerners of this but it will be voters in Ontario that will be needed for the Conservatives to gain power. Harper's trustworthiness in the minds of Ontario voters is the hurdle that the Conservatives must overcome to be successful.

The NDP

The New Democrats, at present, are in the best possible position to move their agenda forward as the Liberals need their cooperation to hold on to power until the spring. If Jack Layton can push forward the removal of private health care clinics and gain more funding in public health care, he will have a great platform for the upcoming election. Layton will tell us that the NDP helped the average Canadian regain important funds to social programs and will continue to do so if voters give them enough support. If Layton is convincing enough, the NDP could see voters who are disgusted enough with the Liberals move over to the left and give the New Democrats extra seats in Parliament, especially from Ontario and the Maritimes.

The Bloc

With the Adscam fiasco Quebec is ripe for the picking by the Bloc. The anger coming out of Quebec is monumental. Thinking that Quebec could be bought off will go down in Canadian history as one of the largest blunders Chretien ever perpetrated while being Prime Minister. Gilles Duceppe will have to do very little to sweep the province and gain most of the seats in Quebec.

The Green Party

With the change of law concerning donations to political parties (one of the last pieces of legislation Chretien put through before retiring), The Greens will have a voice on the national scene. Harris will point out that it is time for a change starting with fundamental changes in the electoral system. He will state that the Liberals have ruled since 1993 without ever gaining a majority of the popular vote. He will then say that the truly democratic way to hold a federal election is to eliminate the first past the post process and bring in proportional representation. If Harris can gain enough attention from the popular media, he may be able to increase the funding for the party and eventually have a chance to gain a seat in Parliament.

Our Predictions

The next federal election will receive total apathy from many Canadian voters. We predict that voter turn out will be the lowest in decades as many will see no one to vote for in 2006. Martin is tainted from being Finance Minister in a government that is shown to be corrupt. Harper is seen by many as untrustworthy. Layton belongs to party that has no experience in governing a country. Duceppe is a separatist and none of the Bloc candidates are running outside Quebec. Harris's concentration on environmental issues looks like an easy way for many voters to become unemployed.

But for those who do vote we see very little change in the make-up of Parliament. The West will vote conservative. Quebec will vote Bloc. Ontario will vote Liberal and the East will vote Liberal and NDP. If the Liberals lose most of their 21 seats in Quebec, and the Conservatives gain more seats in the West and Ontario, and the NDP gain seats in the West, the East and Ontario, then Harper with form the minority government. If the Liberals can hold on to all their seats outside of Quebec, then Martin will continue as the Prime Minister. We predict that the Liberals will lose Quebec wholly and the Conservatives and NDP will gain seats in the rest of Canada and the NDP will hold sway in the 39th Parliament.

Our precise prediction in seats is as follows:

Liberal: 105
Conservative: 106
Bloc: 74
NDP: 23
Green: 0

If this prediction holds true, the Conservatives will form the new government but it will be so precarious that it will fall in less than six months and we will have a second election in less than a year. Joe Clark will be having flashbacks to 1979-80 and Canada's political future will be anyone's guess.

Given all this, we still hope that every Canadian will exercise their democratic right and vote come Election Day. At the very least enter the voting booth and spoil your ballot. With corruption at the forefront of many people's minds you wouldn't want to leave a chance however small for anyone to vote on your behalf now would you?